PART 1
Britain is to be “The Saudi Arabia of wind”, proclaimed Boris Johnson (BBC, 24 Sept). What’s the likelihood, and what’s more, can wind give a reliable energy source that meets all Britain’s needs – in electricity, transport, industry, domestic?
Fossil fuels are the main source of UK primary energy at 76% while wind energy accounts for 5% of the total (IEA, 2020). According to the UK Office of National Statistics, electricity generation from wind power increased by 715% from 2009 to 2020, though it started from a very low base of less than 0.4% of the 2009 total.
The government envisages carbon neutrality by 2050, and there will be a “decisive shift away from fossil fuels to using clean energy for heat and industrial processes” (UK Government White Paper, 2020).
The diagram below shows the White Paper’s prediction for the electrical energy mix in 2050. Compared to current supply, renewables have increased four times and nuclear by about three-fold. The bulk of renewables will be provided by wind power supplemented by biomass, hydroelectric and solar. Hydrogen, a yet unproven source of power, will also play an increasing part.
The total energy consumption includes transport, industry and domestic usage. The government sees transport as becoming almost totally electric-driven, ending the sale of diesel and petrol vehicles. Domestic and industrial heating will depend on electric heat pumps and hydrogen boilers. Hence the demand for energy is expected to at least double by 2050, and supply will depend on wind farms with nuclear providing the bulk of the baseload. The White Paper also has high hopes on carbon capture and storage, and on as yet undeveloped ‘smart’ technology.
Installed wind capacity by 2020 is 14,102 MW onshore and 10,383 MW offshore. In total, they produced some 75,000 GWh of electricity in 2020, about 24% of the total sector. However, because of various wind speeds (they operate within a relatively narrow range), plus downtime for repair and maintenance, wind turbines cannot run at their rated capacity. The capacity factor of onshore and offshore turbines is 28% and 46% respectively (UK government). In comparison, the typical capacity factor of a coal fired power station is 50 to 60%, and nuclear at over 80%.
For over half the time wind farms are standing idle, their performance requires back-up provision, which today is provided by fossil fuel generation. In September 2021, calm weather conditions cut wind energy by 20% (Bloomberg), which combined with a gas shortage and burnt-out connectors, meant an electricity shortage in the UK which continues today. The lack of adequate back-up generation meant that several coal-fired power stations were recommissioned and fired up. High gas and coal prices are set to continue for the near future.
Nuclear is planned to provide the bulk of backup by 2050, yet plants take 7.5 years to build (IAEA PRIS). The UK government plans on building three more by 2035, but by 2030, all but one of Britain’s 15 currently operational nuclear facilities are to be taken offline, equating to a 35% reduction in the country’s total power (NS Energy 27 May 2020). Unless the government radically changes its nuclear policy in the next few years, fossil fuels – not nuclear – will remain the primary backup generation to renewables.
The authorities have earmarked an additional 40 GW of offshore wind turbines by 2030. However, as wind farms are destined to produce at least if half, if not more, of electricity by 2050, then there will have to be a substantial redundancy in the system so that enough of the turbines are producing at any one time, even in the calmest conditions. And adequate redundancy will be even more critical if nuclear is not developed and fossil fuels continue to be run down. The alternative to fossil fuels and nuclear is a huge expansion of offshore and onshore wind farms around all the coasts of the UK, on most of the windy hills and plains, plus the access and transmission infrastructure to support them – or we severely ration power and transport.
Dame Helen Ghosh, once the director-general of the National Trust, said she thought that “a wind turbine in the right place is a rather beautiful thing” (The Times, February 2013). One wonders whether she would feel the same way about the plethora of pylons, substations and roads built to service them.
Industry estimates are a capital cost of about USD 2.6 – 4 million per average-sized commercial wind turbine, at a typical cost is USD 1.3 million per megawatt (MW) of electricity-producing rated capacity. Each commercial turbine requires around 35 hectares each to operate properly. In the next article I’d like to try to cover the capital and maintenance costs, and geographical extent, of Boris Johnson’s zero carbon plans, and the carbon footprint of each wind turbine. As a spoiler, the picture is not pretty.